UK Rental Market Update - 2023 & 2024 Outlook

Charlie Panayi • December 14, 2023

Summary

  • Rental increase past its peak
  • 9.7% up year-on-year
  • 11% increase in rental demand
  • Supply & demand imbalance wont disappear in 2024
  • +5% growth in rental values in 2024



How does 2024 look?

Over recent years the chronic imbalance between supply & demand has driven the rental prices. Effectively they have risen £3,360 a year on average over the past three years alone.


Realistically we are past the peak rental growth, and its likely to slow down significantly during 2024 in growth, mainly due to affordability issues. In some of the higher value area's we have already seen resistence in rents, effectively demonstrating those landlords overpriced.


The rental growth slowing will be mainly driven by the London market, which accounts for 30% of the rental supply throughout England, therefore will make the average figures disproportionate. Where it is also the most expensive area, it is affecting affordability significantly and has definitely reached its peak. I would expect rental growth averages to slow down now, taken the previous into account, averaging around 5%-5.5% by the end of 2024, down from the current growth of 9.7% year-on-year. It's unrealistic to see a higher growth than +2% in London in 2024, again due to affordability, which would be the lowest growth in London since 2021.



UK rental growth down to single digits

As of November 2023 the UK rental growth slowed to 9.7%, which is down from 11.9% year-on-year, however still ahead of earnings growth of 7.9% London has had the biggest rental growth slowdown, sitting at 9% compared to 17% year-on-year. Throughout the rest of the UK areas have continued to perform around 2022 levels.


Scotland have introduced rent controls, resulting in landlords and agents being unable to increase rents hover 3% a year over the duration of the tenancy. The reason I mention this, is because Scotland has performed really well from a landlord perspective, with 12.6% growth, demonstrating how rent controls can be counter-productive and distort markets.



Four factors have driven strong rental demand

There are four main factors that have driven the rental demand over the past three years specifically, listed below:

  • The re-opening of the economy after pandemic restrictions were lifted from mid-2021 onwards, including a resumption of international travel
  • Strength of the labour market with jobs growth and income increase boosting demand for rented homes
  • Higher mortgage rates have made buying power tough. This has kept would-be buyers in rented homes and reduced available supply
  • Record levels of immigration into the UK, particularly high numbers of overseas students, has boosted demand



Overview

The UK rental market has been on fire the past three years, however it is starting to cool. Realistically 2024 will continue to grow, simply due to the imbalance of supply and demand, however with rates effectively at peak levels of affordability then it is unlikely to see as high a growth through 2024.


Imbalance is likely to continue as mortgage rates are still high for some first time buyers, meaning they will be kept in rentals longer and the fact many landlords have sold on and not 'as many' new investors have hit the market yet (they are waiting for the market to suit).


As mentioned London will lead the slowdown, mainly due to affordability pressures - the average London renter spends 40% of earnings on rent alone, compared to 28% throughout the UK.


I would expect to see rental growth to continue running ahead of earnings growth in all other regional housing markets throughout 2024, potentially up to around as high as 8%, again due to the imbalance in the market and the fact there is still room to grow in the other regional markets.


With the imbalance of demand it's looking like another tough year for tenants, competing with more than 30+ competitors per property on average, however a good market for investors.



Data gained from personal knowledge, Zoopla, Onthemarket, Boomin & Home


Check out the Zoopla index below:

By Charlie Panayi November 27, 2025
(aka: I tried not to rant… but here we are) Ok… I’ve taken the night so I don’t rant too much, but honestly? This Budget has left me scratching my head. I genuinely cannot understand the logic of it, and yet, with this government… I can. What we saw this week doesn’t support growth, it doesn’t encourage work and it definitely does not reward the people who actually build this country. Instead, it does the one thing you should never do in a fragile economy... It stifles ambition, punishes entrepreneurship and discourages anyone trying to get ahead. An d that’s the part that gets me, who is thinking this stuff up? With what logic? In what universe does any of this equal “growth”? Let’s break down exactly what they’ve done, in plain English with actual specifics... and by the way I give an optimistic view at the bottom... YES Fiscal Drag on Steroids (and nobody voted for this) The government has frozen tax thresholds for years into the future. What does that mean in real life? You get a small pay rise Or your business earns a bit more Or inflation pushes wages up (as it always does) A nd suddenly, you’re in a higher tax band. It’s a tax rise without them admitting it’s a tax rise...A stealth tax. Quiet. Sneaky. Effective. This affects: workers business owners company directors self-employed people Basically, anyone who earns anything from honest effort. And let’s be clear, this doesn’t hit “the rich.” This affects normal people . Attacks on Investment & Property (aka: why build anything here?) The Budget introduces: Dividend tax is rising by +2 percentage points From the next tax year: Basic rate dividend tax: 8.75% → 10.75% Higher rate dividend tax: 33.75% → 35.75% Additional rate dividend tax: 39.35% → approx. 41.35% So if you take money from your own company? You now pay more tax for doing so. Rental income & savings income tax is also rising by +2 percentage points Basic rate: 20% → 22% Higher rate: 40% → 42% Additional rate: 45% → 47% If you’re a landlord or you receive any savings interest? You now get taxed more, instantly reducing margins and profitability. A brand-new “mansion tax” on homes over £2m This starts in April 2028 : Properties £2m–£2.5m → £2,500/year surcharge Properties up to £5m+ → up to £7,500/year This is on top of normal council tax. Not instead of. On top of. The message is loud and clear: “Don’t bother investing here. Build your future somewhere else.” It’s unbelievable, if you want people to invest in housing, in businesses, in long-term growth...you don’t do this. Crushing small businesses and directors SMEs make up 99% of UK businesses. They employ the majority of the private sector. They are the backbone of this country. So what does the Budget do to help them? In fact, it does the opposite. Higher tax on dividends As above, 2 percentage points more across the board. This directly affects company directors who pay themselves through dividends, which is practically every SME director in the UK. Higher tax on property income This affects: landlords serviced accommodation operators small portfolio owners anyone who diversified into property to create security Threshold freezes Because income bands aren’t rising with inflation, more business owners will fall into: higher tax brackets higher corporation tax pain higher marginal deductions Less incentive to hire If profit is taxed more…and taking that profit out of your own company is also taxed more… Why would any business want to employ anyone or expand in that manner? This then directly affects employment and opportunity for those wanting. And the consequence? People are leaving. In droves. This is already happening. Hundreds of thousands of people have left the UK, year after year. Even more plan to leave, and this was before the Budget. And honestly? I don’t blame them. Why stay in a country where success is treated like a threat? Where building something is punished? Where taking risks becomes pointless? This Budget doesn’t strengthen the UK...It accelerates the brain drain . This Isn’t About Left or Right… It’s About LOGIC This isn’t a political rant. This is a business owner’s frustration. This is from someone who genuinely wants people to do well. Because it feels like we’re watching decisions made by a government that: doesn’t understand how SMEs operate doesn’t grasp how investment works doesn’t see long-term consequences doesn’t value entrepreneurship doesn’t incentivise growth in any meaningful way A strong UK economy cannot be built by squeezing the very people who generate its wealth. We deserve better...The UK deserves better. And Here’s the Optimistic Reality (Yes, There Is One) Now for the part people forget: Waiting for any government to fix your life, your income, your business or your future is a losing game. They won’t. They never have. And this Budget proves it. But here’s the good news... Opportunity doesn’t disappear, it just shifts. In every downturn…In every bad policy cycle…In every “what on earth are they doing?” moment… There are people who: spot gaps adapt faster solve problems take advantage of markets others are too scared to enter build businesses when everyone else complains grow when others freeze invest when others retreat The most successful people I know didn’t win because of government policy. They won in spite of it . The smart ones will pivot. The brave ones will act. The frustrated ones (like all of us right now) will still find a way, because we always do. There is ALWAYS opportunity out there. Not controlled by governments. Not restricted by budgets. Not cancelled by tax hikes. If anything, chaos creates more opportunity. And the people who stay alert, stay adaptable and stay ambitious will thrive, regardless of what’s happening in Westminster. So yes, this Budget is madness. But it doesn’t get to decide your future. You do.
By Charlie Panayi November 18, 2025
This is the biggest shake-up to private renting in decades. From 1 May 2026 the rules around repossessions, deposits and property standards change, and that means landlords must act now. Below is a plain-English guide: what’s changing, what it actually means, and a simple to-do checklist so you can get on with it. If you want templates, examples and a downloadable checklist, join my live briefing (if you can't make the date email me to join webinar link)  . Book the briefing → https://www.eventbrite.com/e/renters-reform-2026-biggest-changes-in-decades-tickets-1969971230982?aff=oddtdtcreator
By Charlie Panayi October 16, 2025
A Milestone Moment in Parliament
By Charlie Panayi September 25, 2025
Building Confidence When Pitching to Investors
By Charlie Panayi September 1, 2025
It’s one of the questions I hear most often as an agent on the Island 
By Charlie Panayi September 1, 2025
“When’s the best time to sell my house?”
By Charlie Panayi August 13, 2025
In August 2025, I set out to climb Mont Blanc — at 4,806m (15,774ft), the highest peak in Western Europe . It turned out to be the hardest thing I’ve ever done...physically, mentally, and emotionally. I knew it would test me. I just didn’t know how much.
By Charlie Panayi July 8, 2025
Overview
By Charlie Panayi June 16, 2025
The UK rental market is moving again, but this time, it’s not all heat. Rents are still rising, but at their slowest pace in years, and we’re finally seeing more stock come through. For landlords, this is the time to get smart, yes the demand is still high but: margins are tighter, tenant expectations are higher, and the days of just listing and waiting are over. Below, I break down the key stats and what they really mean, plus how I’m navigating it with my own portfolio.
By Charlie Panayi May 3, 2025
If you’re in or around the property world right now, you’ll know the market is shifting again. And once again — it’s not about panic, it’s about preparation. Here’s a straight-talking update on what’s happening, what it means for you, and where I see the opportunities right now.