August UK Property Market Update

Charlie Panayi • September 5, 2023

Summary

·        House price inflates +0.1% annually in UK

·        21% down on completed house sales compared to 2022

·        House price growth at -1% in London

·        Regional house price inflation linked to first-time-buyers affordability

·        Completed transactions still on track for 1 million, although as we write 21% lower over 2023, lowest since 2012

·        Cash buyer sales expected to hold in line with 2022

·        Mortgage-backed sales likely to be 28% lower as higher rates impact demand

·        Lower mortgage rates key to improved demand and sales in 2024

·        Affordability improving



Southern areas see larger price drops


Price-sensitive buyers and fewer sales have led to a substantial slowdown in price inflation, at only +0.1%. This is the lowest annual growth rate since August 2012.


The more affordable areas up north are showing clear differences, with Scotland registering +1.7%, whilst southern areas -1%.


It would suggest the higher mortgage rates reflect the market where there is lower selling prices along with inflation. Buyers in southern England need larger mortgages, bigger deposits and higher incomes to buy. This effectively prices more buyers out of the market and weakening demand. It is likely we will see this trend continue for the remainder of 2023.



First time buyers are 1 in 3 purchases the past year


Most of first time buyers originate from the private rental sector, meaning that this will shift prices both ways. It is clear to see also that the with the increase in mortgage rates we are seeing first time buyers focusing on a more affordable part of the market, rather than the 3+ bedroom range. As we speak renting (throughout the UK) is 10% cheaper than buying, despite the growth of rents in the recent years.


However, this differs on the areas throughout the UK, a renter buying the home they rent would find it cheaper to buy than rent in the six regions and countries with the lowest house prices. In Scotland and the North East average mortgage repayments are up to 18% lower than rental costs. This supports access to the housing market and the demand for homes.


In contrast, in London, the average monthly payment is 24% higher than the monthly rent. Higher mortgage rates will price FTBs out of the market in certain regions.


This would suggest that it supports the view of the southern England markets to see the biggest hit on values.



On track for 1m home completions


Although house price growth has stalled over the last 12 months, the main impact has been on sales completions. Data shows the number of homes being sold ‘subject to contract’ over the year to date shows the market is still on track for 1m sales completions in 2023. Slightly lower than my projected 1.2 million earlier in the year, this will be 21% down on 2022 levels and the lowest number of sales in the last 7 years. The main reason for this is definitely the increased mortgage rates putting pressure on buying power and calculations when attaining mortgages.



Cash buyers holding steady

 

Based on trends over the first six months of 2023, data estimates that cash sales will fall just 1% over 2023 compared to 2022 levels. However, the number of mortgaged sales is projected to be 28% lower. The net decline across cash and mortgaged buyers is 21%.


Existing homeowners using a mortgage typically account for a third of annual sales. This group is under less pressure to move as they already have a home and, where possible, will be waiting until the outlook for mortgage rates improves from their current levels.


The economics of new buy to let purchases are also being squeezed by higher mortgage rates. Mortgaged buy to let purchases typically account for 8% of sales. Buy to let investors in southern England need to inject 40-50% of the property value as equity to get the numbers to stack up meaning new investment will be lower over 2023.


While first-time buyer numbers will be lower in 2023, we expect them to hold up as a result of more flexible working opening up options to buy in cheaper markets as well as buying costs being lower than renting in more affordable markets. In addition, more landlord selling previously rented homes, which are typically priced 25% lower than the wider market, is boosting available supply that appeals to FTBs.



Moving forward



Affordability is improving relative to earnings as wages rise, up 7% over the last year. Housing affordability, on a house price to earnings basis, looks set to improve by 9-10% over 2023 as prices register modest falls and average earnings increase. The UK house price to earnings ratio will be in line with the 20-year average at the end of 2023 at 6.3x.


On a regional basis, affordability has improved the most in London. Here, the price to earnings ratio will get into single digits for the first time in 11 years as house price growth has been low since 2016.


We expect earnings to continue to rise faster than house prices again in 2024, improving the measure further, especially in southern England. This, together with mortgage rates in the 4-5% range, will support sales volumes closer to the long-run average. I expect mortgage rates to drop below 5% towards the end of this year, however it’s looking like a drawn out process.


Moving forward, I remain optimistic on the amount of completed home sales than that of price growth, it would be realistic to stay with my previous views that we will be down another couple % between now and the end of the year (realistically). However, hybrid working, demographic trends of the population and high immigration will support sales movement over the next 2-3 years.




Data generated from Zoopla, Rightmove, Hometrack and Home

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I’m incredibly honored to be shortlisted for the Entrepreneur Award at the IW Chamber Business Awards 2025 .
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Here are five ways pride could be limiting your success... and what you can do about it. 1. Resistance to Feedback: The Silent Growth Killer No one likes criticism. But when pride takes over, even constructive feedback feels like a personal attack . Instead of seeing feedback as a tool for improvement , many leaders see it as a challenge to their authority or expertise . Yet, research has shown that companies that actively seek feedback and foster a culture of learning outperform those that don’t. A study from Zenger & Folkman found that leaders who ask for and act on feedback are rated 86% more effective by their employees (source) . If you struggle to accept feedback, ask yourself: What if this person is right? What opportunities am I missing by ignoring this? Am I resisting feedback because of ego , or because I genuinely disagree? The moment you start separating feedback from personal identity , you unlock a whole new level of growth . 2. Fear of Vulnerability: Why Leaders Struggle to Ask for Help Many business owners and leaders feel pressure to always have the answers . They believe that admitting a mistake or asking for help is a sign of weakness . But in reality, it’s the opposite . Some of the most successful people in the world actively seek out help and mentorship . They surround themselves with advisors, peers, and experts who challenge their thinking and push them forward. If you never ask for help, you risk: Making avoidable mistakes because you didn’t seek advice Slowing down your progress by trying to figure everything out alone Burning out by carrying more than you need to The best leaders don’t go it alone... they build strong support systems and know when to reach out. 3. Stagnation from Perfectionism: The Illusion of ‘Not Ready Yet’ Pride and perfectionism often go hand in hand. Leaders with high standards (which is a good thing) can sometimes become paralysed by the fear of launching something imperfect (which is a bad thing). You tell yourself: “I’ll do it when it’s perfect.” “It’s not quite ready yet.” “I need more time.” But the reality? Perfectionism is often just fear in disguise. The longer you wait, the more momentum you lose. Research suggests that 92% of people fail to achieve their goals , often because they overanalyse or delay starting due to fear of failure. Success isn’t about getting it perfect... it’s about getting it started . 4. Limited Perspective: The Danger of Thinking ‘My Way is the Only Way’ Pride convinces leaders that their way is the best way... but in business, that kind of thinking can kill innovation . The best ideas often come from outside perspectives... from employees, peers, mentors, or even customers. If you shut down new ideas because they don’t align with your way of thinking , you could be missing out on game-changing opportunities . Neuroscience research suggests that leaders who expose themselves to diverse perspectives enhance cognitive flexibility and decision-making skills (source) . The fix? Stay curious . Actively seek out different perspectives . Challenge yourself to see things through someone else’s lens...bec ause that’s often where the biggest breakthroughs happen. 5 . Strained Relationships: When Pride Creates Distance A leader who always needs to be right is a leader who will struggle to build trust . When pride gets in the way, relationships suffer. Employees stop speaking up, business partners hold back ideas, and clients feel unheard. Over time, this creates a culture where collaboration is weak, communication is guarded, and progress slows down. L eaders who demonstrate humility are more effective at building high-performing teams . 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If you want to book me for a talk or work with me, reach me via charlie@charliepanayi.com
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